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ΓΔ:12-1-2007 - Νέο υψηλό με εξελίξεις - sed.gr
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EKTA
Δημοσιεύσεις: 1219
Εγγραφή: 22 Δεκ 2006, 09:59
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12 Ιαν 2007, 21:44

Νέο υψηλό με εξελίξεις..

Σε μία πολύ ενδιαφέρουσα φάση βρίσκεται το ΧΑ και χρειάζονται περισσότερες από μία αναλύσεις για να μπορέσουμε να γράψουμε για όλα όσα κρίνονται αξιόλογα. Ξεκινώντας από την εικόνα της Παρασκευής, ο ΓΔ έκλεισε σε νέο υψηλό επίπεδο, στις 4615,47 μονάδες με άνοδο 1,16%.

Πρωταγωνιστές οι γνωστές μετοχές, δηλαδή, οι ΟΤΕ, ΕΤΕ, ΑΛΦΑ, με την τελευταία να κρατά τα πρωτεία καταγράφοντας άνοδο 2,85% κλείνοντας στα 25,30 ευρώ. Σε κάποιες από τις τελευταίες αναλύσεις μας για το 2006 είχαμε αναφερθεί εκτενώς στο νέο ρόλο που έχει αναλάβει η ΑΛΦΑ, παίρνοντας τα σκήπτρα από την ΕΤΕ. Επιβεβαιωθήκαμε, λοιπόν, καθώς από την αρχή του έτους η μετοχή έχει ενισχυθεί κατά 8,58%, ποσοστό εξαιρετικά υψηλό.

Τα πράγματα, όμως, γίνονται ακόμη πιο ενδιαφέροντα: θυμίζουμε στους αναγνώστες της στήλης ότι στις 18/07/2006 όταν ο ΓΔ βρίσκοντας στις 3553,09 μονάδες, είχαμε προβλέψει ότι ξεκίνησε ένα ανοδικό ράλι το οποίο θα έπιανε στον ύπνο όλους τους αναλυτές και επενδυτές. Σήμερα, μπορούμε να σας αποκαλύψουμε ότι ένας από τους βασικούς λόγους που κάναμε εκείνη την πρόβλεψη, ήταν ότι ο, πολύ ακριβής, δείκτης ΕΚΤΑ 600 είχε μόλις προειδοποιήσει για ακραία πτωτική κατάσταση σε μακροπρόθεσμο ορίζοντα.

Ο βασικός στόχος που είχαμε θέσει ήταν αυτός που η θεωρία διδάσκει, δηλαδή η προηγούμενη σημαντικότερη κορυφή, η οποία τοποθετούνταν κοντά στις 4300 μονάδες. Ο στόχος επετεύχθη με το ΓΔ να κλείνει το 2006 στις 4394 και να φτάνει μέσα στις πρώτες ημέρες του 2007 πάνω από τις 4600.

Το ράλι, όμως, αυτό, τον έφερε στο πιο ακραία ανοδικό σημείο των τελευταίων 3,5 ετών και σε σχέση με την άνοδο που προηγήθηκε το πιο ακραίο από τον Αύγουστο του 1999. Ο ΓΔ απείχε, στις 08/01 μόλις 4,00% από το σημείο στο οποίο θα περνούσε σε ακραία ανοδική κατάσταση, μέτρηση η οποία ήταν μεγαλύτερη από αυτή του Φεβρουαρίου, όταν ακολούθησε πτώση αλλά και του Μαΐου, όταν ακολούθησε το μίνι κραχ.

Υπάρχουν και άλλες πολύ ενδιαφέρουσες εξελίξεις τις οποίες θα δούμε στις επόμενες αναλύσεις.
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